Ravens' Flacco Ready For His Close-Up Vs. Bengals

Football Betting Lines

09/05/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome labeled him as the quarterback of the future, and even traded up in April's NFL Draft for his services. Injuries, however, may be the only reason why Joe Flacco is getting the starting nod for Sunday's season opener versus the Cincinnati Bengals at M&T Bank Stadium.

The rookie out of Delaware will kick off head coach John Harbaugh's tenure with the Ravens, and gets an immediate taste of what an NFL rivalry is all about. Flacco beat out injured signal-callers Kyle Boller (shoulder) and Troy Smith (tonsils) for Sunday's starting nod, and showcased his ability in the final two preseason games. With Flacco getting the call and Harbaugh a big fan of Smith, the days of Boller leading the franchise are most likely over, at least for this season, since he was placed on injured reserve.

Harbaugh, the third head coach in franchise history, brought in Todd Bouman as an emergency backup quarterback for Sunday's tilt.

Flacco, the 18th overall pick in the 2008 draft, could take over the reins permanently if he succeeds against Cincinnati. The former Blue Hen is known for his size, strong arm and accuracy, something the Ravens haven't had under center since Steve McNair's first season of 2006. Flacco, who went 35-for-67 for 284 yards and no interceptions in the preseason, will try to get the Ravens on the right path in their season opener, something the franchise has done just once over the past six years. Baltimore finished just 5-11 in 2007, a far cry from its successful 13-3 campaign in 2006 when it won the AFC North.

Cincinnati has gone through some drama of its own this offseason from the usual suspects. Running back Rudi Johnson, however, will have a new area code after the former starter was released by the Bengals before signing with the Detroit Lions. Wide receiver Chad Johnson takes the cake, though, with his televised rants and the pursuit of changing his last name to Ocho Cinco, which is Spanish for the numbers he wears on his jersey.

Johnson is one of the top receivers in the game when he's happy or not feuding with management or All-Pro quarterback Carson Palmer. He underwent ankle surgery in June and then later suffered a partial tear of the labrum in his left shoulder in the second preseason game. Johnson is expected to play with the problem against the rival Ravens.

Marvin Lewis is in his sixth season as head coach of the Bengals, who have won their last three season openers. A victory over the Ravens would tie the team record for most consecutive season-opening wins, set at four under head coach Paul Brown from 1969-72. Lewis has struggled through the past two years without a record above .500, having finished 7-9 last season and 8-8 in 2006. Lewis guided the Bengals to a 27-20 win over Baltimore in last year's season opener at Paul Brown Stadium.

SERIES HISTORY

Baltimore leads the all-time series with Cincinnati, 13-11, but is just 1-6 in its last seven meetings against the Bengals. The Ravens' lone win over that span was a 26-20 triumph at M&T Bank Stadium during the 2006 campaign. Cincinnati completed a home-and-home sweep of Baltimore last season, with a 27-20 win at Paul Brown Stadium in Week 1 and a 21-7 triumph in Charm City in Week 10.

Lewis is 7-3 against the Ravens, the team for which he served as defensive coordinator from 1996 through 2001. Baltimore's Harbaugh will be meeting both Lewis and the Bengals for the first time as a head coach.

WHEN THE BENGALS HAVE THE BALL

Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer was clearly perturbed with last season's results, despite breaking two of his own franchise records. Palmer (4,131 yards, 26 TD, 20 INT) took every snap last season and finished with a team- record 373 completions and 4,131 passing yards, but Cincy managed just five wins. Palmer, who is 3-1 in season openers, became the fifth-fastest quarterback in NFL history to reach 100 career touchdown passes. Palmer's numbers helped the Bengals finish seventh in passing last season, with many of his passes going to wideout T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Houshmandzadeh (1,143 yards, 12 TD) led the team with 112 catches, while Johnson (1,440 yards, 8 TDs) was tops in yards. Palmer will have a new weapon in tight end Ben Utecht (364 yards, TD), who spent his first three seasons in the NFL with Indianapolis, and will get a lot more looks as a Bengal than when he played behind the Colts' Dallas Clark.

The Ravens are bringing back a veteran secondary spearheaded by free safety Ed Reed (39 tackles, 7 INT), though Reed is unlikely to play this week due to a shoulder injury. Reed, a 2002 first-round draft pick, played in all 16 games in 2007 and holds the franchise record with 34 interceptions. Veteran Jim Leonhard is likely to take his place. Strong safety Dawan Landry (83 tackles, sack) enters his third season with the Ravens and started a career-best 16 games in 2007. Veteran cornerbacks Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle are back at full strength to shut down passing offenses. McAlister (19 tackles, INT) played in just eight games last season due to injury, but is expected to be back to form for his 10th NFL season. Rolle (22 tackles, INT) missed a lot of time (10 games) in 2007 because of an illness and a shoulder problem. Rolle joined the Ravens in 2005 after seven seasons with Tennessee. Cornerbacks Fabian Washington and Frank Walker are first-year Ravens, while Corey Ivy (57 tackles, 3 sacks, INT) and Derrick Martin (40 tackles, 2 INT) are back for their third seasons with the franchise. Martin will serve a one-game NFL suspension on Sunday.

Cincinnati's offensive line trimmed a big part of its history when veteran tackle Willie Anderson was released to save money. Anderson played in only seven games last season, but will be missed by both Palmer and running backs Chris Perry, Kenny Watson and DeDe Dorsey. Not to worry though since the Bengals are returning tackles Levi Jones and Stacy Andrews, and guards Andrew Whitworth and Bobbie Williams. With Rudi Johnson in Detroit, Perry will get a chance to display his worth as a starter. He missed all of 2007 because of an ankle injury and played just six games in 2006. He is entering his fifth season with the Bengals. Watson, meanwhile, is a veteran of seven years in the NFL, and led Cincinnati's dismal 24th-ranked ground attack. Watson (763 yards, 7 TD) had a team-high 178 carries because Johnson was out five games last season. Dorsey (183 yards) is listed as third on the depth chart and will see action when both Perry and Watson need breathers. Dorsey will earn most of his paycheck on special teams.

The Minnesota Vikings were the only stop unit to finish ahead of the Ravens in rushing defense a year ago. While Minnesota held the opposition to just 74.1 rushing yards per game, Baltimore was right behind at 79.3 ypg. Perhaps a large part of the credit goes to veteran and future Hall of Fame middle linebacker Ray Lewis, who led the team for the 10th time in his career in tackles. Lewis (121 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INT) earned his ninth trip to the Pro Bowl last season despite missing the final two games with a finger injury. The two-time Defensive Player of the Year is the franchise's leader in stops and has posted 100 or more tackles in a season two straight years and in four of the past five. Outside linebackers Terrell Suggs (78 tackles, 5 sacks) and Jarret Johnson (58 tackles, 2 sacks) will flank Lewis on either side once again, while Bart Scott (94 tackles, sack) will play the other middle role in Baltimore's 3-4 scheme. Nick Greisen (30 tackles), Antwan Barnes (10 tackles, 2 sacks), and rookie Tavares Gooden (Miami-Florida) will play reserve roles. Baltimore's front line of Kelly Gregg (83 tackles, 3 sacks), Haloti Ngata (63 tackles, 3 sacks) and Trevor Pryce (15 tackles, 2 sacks) are all back and healthy. Pryce played in just five games in 2007. Marques Douglas and Justin Bannan are at Harbaugh's disposal as reserves.

WHEN THE RAVENS HAVE THE BALL

Flacco has great size for an NFL quarterback at 6-6, 230 pounds, and is just the second quarterback selected in the first round by the Ravens (Boller, 2003). There is no doubt Flacco will feel the heat on Sunday despite setting 20 University of Delaware records, but will have a veteran cast around him. However, he will not have future Hall of Fame offensive tackle Jonathan Ogden, who retired. Ogden was an anchor on the left side of the Ravens' offensive line for more than 10 years, leaving Flacco's blind side in the hands of Jared Gaither. Gaither is in his second NFL season and appeared in six games last season, two of which were starts. Gaither was one of three Baltimore rookies to start on the offensive line. Adam Terry and rookie Oniel Cousins will push Gaither for playing time. Flacco hopes to have enough time to spread the ball around to his receivers, especially Derrick Mason. Mason (1,087 yards, 5 TD) is entering his 12th NFL season and led the Ravens with 103 receptions last year. Mark Clayton (531 yards) didn't reach the end zone in 2007, but is a deep threat who can stretch the field. Stud tight end Todd Heap (239 yards, TD) played in only six games last season because of injury, but is back at full strength this season for the Ravens, who finished with just the 23rd- ranked pass attack last season.

Cincinnati was an easy team to pass on last season, as it ended 26th overall in that category. The secondary allowed 230.4 passing yards per game, but hopes it can open the new season with a few turnovers against a rookie quarterback. Strong safety Dexter Jackson (72 tackles, 1/2 sack, 2 INT) and free safety Marvin White (20 tackles) are both holdovers returning for another healthy campaign. Starting cornerbacks Leon Hall (69 tackles, 5 INT) and Johnathan Joseph (62 tackles, 4 INT) will be tested early by the strong arm of Flacco, although the duo produced the team's most turnovers. Hall is an aggressive defender who often gambles on plays, while Joseph is back at 100 percent after a foot injury slowed his 2007 start.

Hard-nosed running back Willis McGahee is entering his second season with the Ravens after an excellent debut in 2007. McGahee (1,207 yards, 7 TD) started all 15 games he played last year, only missing the season finale with broken ribs. The Miami-Florida product has worked hard to stay in the NFL after a devastating knee injury during his final season as a Hurricane. McGahee has the speed to go around the ends, while the muscle to work his way through the tackles as evidenced by his uplifting numbers. McGahee is also a threat out of the backfield with his soft hands, finishing with 231 yards and a touchdown on 43 receptions. Rutgers rookie running back Ray Rice will serve as McGahee's backup and has the size and speed to be successful at the NFL level. Rice has big legs and will also contribute on special teams. Fullback Le'Ron McClain (18 yards) will pave the way for McGahee and share time with veteran newcomer Lorenzo Neal. Neal, a 16-year pro, spent the past five years plowing defenders for star tailback LaDainian Tomlinson. So McGahee and Co. will be in good hands when Neal enters the game. Baltimore's ground attack was 16th in 2007.

The Bengals had trouble defending the opposing ground game a year ago, ending with the 21st-rated run defense (118.3 ypg). They will have even more trouble without leading tackler and outside linebacker Landon Johnson in the fold. Johnson had 108 tackles last season and opted for a big contract with the Carolina Panthers in the summer. So the Bengals went out and selected perhaps the best linebacker in the draft in USC standout Keith Rivers. Rivers was a holdout for some time, but got some work in during training camp and the preseason. Rivers is expected to have a smooth transition into the NFL with his toughness, speed and maturity. Rivers will learn from middle linebacker and team captain Dhani Jones (90 tackles, sack) and Rashad Jeanty (39 tackles). Jeanty was limited by injuries last year and played in 10 games, seven of which were starts. Jones signed as a free agent before Week 3 last season and impressed the coaching staff with his enthusiasm. Cincy's front line lost starting defensive end Justin Smith to free agency, as he took his 78 tackles and two sacks from a year ago to the San Francisco 49ers. However, Antwan Odom inked a big deal with the Bengals after spending time with Tennessee. Odom had a career-high eight sacks in 2007 and 29 quarterback pressures. Odom, who started every game for the Titans last year, will replace Smith's edge-rushing skills. Odom may be a little rusty after not playing in the preseason due to a foot injury. Defensive tackles Domata Peko (52 tackles, 1 1/2 sacks) and John Thornton (32 tackles, sack) are back to collapse the pocket and stuff the run, while defensive end Robert Geathers (47 tackles, 3 1/2 sacks, INT) returns for another successful campaign. Geathers was tops on the Bengals in sacks last season.

FANTASY FOCUS

Baltimore's fantasy focus is mainly McGahee, Heap, Mason and Clayton. Heap has been a problem the past few years for fantasy owners because of injury issues, but McGahee is always a solid choice. Flacco is a long shot for most fantasy leagues, perhaps using him later in the season might work better. As usual, the Ravens own one of the top defenses in the game, but age is catching up with the stop unit (i.e. Lewis, McAlister, Rolle). For the Bengals, Perry and Watson will share a lot of carries so they will not be starters in most leagues now that Rudi Johnson is in Detroit. Houshmandzadeh, Palmer and Chad Johnson are usual suspects for fantasy gurus all over the world. Cincinnati's defense is not that good, and it would be a stretch to have them in a No. 1 slot.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The Harbaugh era will get off to a promising start in Baltimore, despite having a rookie under center against the rival Bengals. If Flacco can stay poised in the pocket and carry some of his college and preseason swagger over to the regular season, Cincinnati will have a difficult time stopping the flow. Flacco has the receivers and just needs to hit them at the right time and limit turnovers. If he starts forcing throws and begins showing signs of angst, then the Bengals will be ready to pounce. Don't forget, Ogden is no longer in action protecting the blind side. A healthy McGahee, meanwhile, is bad news for the Cincinnati defense, and the shifty back is confident for a successful 2008 campaign. The only way the Bengals can win is if they quiet the M&T Bank Stadium faithful early with big plays from Houshmandzadeh, Chad Johnson and Palmer. Cincy will not scare opposing defenses this season with its running back corps. Perry and Watson are average backs at best, and will need to work hard for yards on Sunday.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Ravens 24, Bengals 17

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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