08/29/2008 - Madrid, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Real Madrid spent the entire summer trying to lure Cristiano Ronaldo to Spain, while putting Robinho on the market to pay for the possible addition of the likely FIFA World Player of the Year.
With just days left in the transfer window - and the La Liga season starting on Saturday - the rumors have finally stopped. Ronaldo is staying with Manchester United and Robinho is not headed to Chelsea and will be back with Real Madrid.
"[Robinho] is staying in Madrid," Real Madrid president Ramon Calderon told AS on Friday, "and there is no possibility of going back on that."
Now, Real can focus on winning its third straight league title and making noise in the Champions League. Real last won three straight La Liga crowns during a five-year run from 1986-90 and hasn't won the Champions League since 2002.
Although the Champions League drought wouldn't be an issue at almost every club in the world, the record nine-time European champions haven't advanced past the last 16 since 2004.
Coach Bernd Schuster isn't in an enviable position this season, because failure in the Champions League could cost him his job.
But Schuster - with Robinho still on board - has a team capable of claiming the Champions League title. Obviously, Real Madrid is the favorite to repeat as La Liga champions, although Barcelona will likely be back in the hunt after ending 18 points behind in third last season.
Robinho emerged as one of the world's top players last season, scoring 11 goals in league play. The diminutive Brazilian should deliver even more in his fourth season in Madrid.
He's one of just six current Real players who have been with the club for more than three seasons. Spain defender Sergio Ramos, who will again help anchor the defense, is also about to start his fourth season in Madrid.
Captain Raul scored 18 goals in 37 league appearances last season, and will be eager to impress after being left off Spain's Euro 2008 championship team. He's the veteran of the squad, having only played for Real Madrid since turning pro in 1994.
Spanish goalie Iker Casillas is another Real veteran - he's been with the club since 1999 - and is one of the best in the world. Attacking midfielder Guti and defender Michel Salgado are two more veterans who have been around since before Real Madrid won its other Champions League title this decade in 2000.
Those six hold together a team that has seen the other 19 players change in the last two seasons. The turnaround has produced league titles, but the Champions League has been another story.
Real Madrid was drawn into Group H on Thursday with BATE Borisov, Juventus and Zenit St. Petersburg. The group stage starts in mid-September.
Dutch striker Ruud van Nistelrooy, who had 16 goals last season, Italy defender Fabio Cannavaro and Mali defender Mahamadou Diarra all joined Real in 2006 and have settled into key roles.
Dutch midfielder Wesley Sneijder was among the additions before last season and he scored nine goals in his first season in Madrid. He'll likely have to battle for time with new addition Rafael van der Vaart, a Dutch teammate.
Van der Vaart was signed from Germany's Hamburg but picked up a red card in the Spanish Super Cup and will have to sit out the first game. He joins a team that only lost Julio Baptista to Roma but he was on loan to Arsenal for the last two seasons anyway.
Real Madrid starts the season Sunday at Deportivo and should have Cannavaro in the lineup, although he missed three months with an ankle injury. Real Madrid has struggled at the Riazor, though, dropping its last five games there and is winless at the venue since 1991.
Regardless of whether Real breaks its long skid against Deportivo, it should be on the top of the league when it matters.
Villarreal, which finished second last season, will try to somehow improve this season. The Yellow Submarines return top scorers Nihat Kahvechi, 18 goals, and American-born Giuseppe Rossi, 11 goals, but both are out injured for Sunday's opener at Osasuna
Barcelona dumped former two-time FIFA World Player of the Year Ronaldinho this offseason, but he barely played last year. Without him being a distraction this season, Barca will try to regain its form under new coach Pep Guardiola. He was just one of the many players Barca unloaded this season, however.
Barcelona reloaded, though, spending $132.5 million on six new players.
Brazilian midfielder Daniel Alves was the most expensive at $43.5 million, but Uruguayan defender Martin Caceres ($24.3 million), Belarussian midfielder Aliaksandr Hleb ($22.1 million), Malian midfielder Seydou Keita ($20.6 million), Brazilian defender Henrique Adriano Buss ($14.7 million) and defender Gerard Pique ($7.3 million) were also added.
Barcelona kept Argentine star Lionel Messi, who just helped his country win its second straight Olympic gold. French striker Thierry Henry and Cameroon striker Samuel Eto'o, who was rumored to be on his way out for most of the summer, are also back to fuel the offense.
Barcelona had no trouble getting through the qualifying round of the Champions League and should be a force if all the new talent gels. Barca opens the season Sunday at newly promoted Numancia.
Atletico Madrid, which was fourth last season and also made the group stage of the Champions League, hopes Argentine striker Sergio Aguero can help it crack the top three. Atletico hosts newly promoted Malaga on Sunday.
Sevilla, which struggled after the death of Antonio Puerta early last season, will try to get back on track with Fredi Kanoute and Luis Fabiano leading the offense. Sevilla also opens Sunday at Racing.
On Saturday, Espanyol hosts Valladolid and Valencia hosts Mallorca.
Also Sunday, Athletic Bilbao hosts Almeria, Sporting Gijon hosts Getafe and Real Betis hosts Recreativo.
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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